As a second Trump term approaches, financial markets, investors, and policymakers are closely analysing its impact on the economy, monetary policy, and specific sectors. The legacy of Trump's first term (2016–2020) provides valuable insights into what may unfold in another term, but unique factors in the current economic climate—such as inflation, geopolitical tensions, and energy markets—also contribute to this complex outlook. This article examines the potential economic shifts, key policies, and market reactions associated with a Trump victory, as well as the expected impacts on sectors such as energy, technology, and finance.

Is AI a bubble? As we approach the second half of 2024, this has become the trillion-dollar question on everyone’s lips. Where are we in this AI-driven tech cycle? In this article we will discuss how AI will fundamentally reshape our work and life and establish whether Generative AI has the legs to turn into a multi-decade technological revolution.

For this mid-year outlook, we break down our findings into two key themes: a long-term view of the future, and the more near-term influences of the business cycle. This dual focus helps to shape our strategic positioning and clarifies investment perspectives for the year.